By John Hendrickson

Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party campaign threatened to tip the election to Donald Trump. Now that Kamala Harris has replaced Biden on the ticket, Kennedy could still end up playing spoiler—in the Democrat’s favor.

For most of this year, conventional wisdom has held that Kennedy would hurt the Democratic candidate more than the Republican. This was an imperfect prediction for many reasons, not least because Kennedy was altogether excluded from plenty of surveys. But when his name did appear as an option for respondents, polls showed him reducing both major candidates’ support—a little more so for Biden. A May New York Times poll, for example, had Trump leading Biden by an extra point when Kennedy was included. In a close race, a single percentage point can make all the difference.

Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party campaign threatened to tip the election to Donald Trump. Now that Kamala Harris has replaced Biden on the ticket, Kennedy could still end up playing spoiler—in the Democrat’s favor.

For most of this year, conventional wisdom has held that Kennedy would hurt the Democratic candidate more than the Republican. This was an imperfect prediction for many reasons, not least because Kennedy was altogether excluded from plenty of surveys. But when his name did appear as an option for respondents, polls showed him reducing both major candidates’ support—a little more so for Biden. A May New York Times poll, for example, had Trump leading Biden by an extra point when Kennedy was included. In a close race, a single percentage point can make all the difference.

Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party campaign threatened to tip the election to Donald Trump. Now that Kamala Harris has replaced Biden on the ticket, Kennedy could still end up playing spoiler—in the Democrat’s favor.

For most of this year, conventional wisdom has held that Kennedy would hurt the Democratic candidate more than the Republican. This was an imperfect prediction for many reasons, not least because Kennedy was altogether excluded from plenty of surveys. But when his name did appear as an option for respondents, polls showed him reducing both major candidates’ support—a little more so for Biden. A May New York Times poll, for example, had Trump leading Biden by an extra point when Kennedy was included. In a close race, a single percentage point can make all the difference.Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party campaign threatened to tip the election to Donald Trump. Now that Kamala Harris has replaced Biden on the ticket, Kennedy could still end up playing spoiler—in the Democrat’s favor.

For most of this year, conventional wisdom has held that Kennedy would hurt the Democratic candidate more than the Republican. This was an imperfect prediction for many reasons, not least because Kennedy was altogether excluded from plenty of surveys. But when his name did appear as an option for respondents, polls showed him reducing both major candidates’ support—a little more so for Biden. A May New York Times poll, for example, had Trump leading Biden by an extra point when Kennedy was included. In a close race, a single percentage point can make all the difference.Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party campaign threatened to tip the election to Donald Trump. Now that Kamala Harris has replaced Biden on the ticket, Kennedy could still end up playing spoiler—in the Democrat’s favor.

For most of this year, conventional wisdom has held that Kennedy would hurt the Democratic candidate more than the Republican. This was an imperfect prediction for many reasons, not least because Kennedy was altogether excluded from plenty of surveys. But when his name did appear as an option for respondents, polls showed him reducing both major candidates’ support—a little more so for Biden. A May New York Times poll, for example, had Trump leading Biden by an extra point when Kennedy was included. In a close race, a single percentage point can make all the difference.

Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party campaign threatened to tip the election to Donald Trump. Now that Kamala Harris has replaced Biden on the ticket, Kennedy could still end up playing spoiler—in the Democrat’s favor.

For most of this year, conventional wisdom has held that Kennedy would hurt the Democratic candidate more than the Republican. This was an imperfect prediction for many reasons, not least because Kennedy was altogether excluded from plenty of surveys. But when his name did appear as an option for respondents, polls showed him reducing both major candidates’ support—a little more so for Biden. A May New York Times poll, for example, had Trump leading Biden by an extra point when Kennedy was included. In a close race, a single percentage point can make all the difference.